2012 GOP primary midpoint review

The Current published an article on Jan. 17 about the 2012 GOP presidential candidates. Here is a mid-point review of the GOP primaries to keep you informed as we approach the 2012 presidential election on Nov. 6.

 

March madness GOP style

Nationwide, there has been talk of a brokered convention. This (which has never occurred in the history of American politics), would happen if no candidate has 1,144 delegates after the Utah primary on June 26.

An article published in the New York Times on March 17 titled “All Odds Aside, G.O.P. Girding for Floor Fight” reported that if Romney began securing major wins after the Puerto Rico primary, he could possibly have enough delegates to clinch the nomination before June 26.

The Illinois primary on March 20, yet again, demonstrated that the GOP nomination is a tight two-man race between Romney and Santorum. Romney not only walked away with a vast majority of Illinois’ delegates, he also captured 107,704 more votes than Santorum. And after Gingrich’s fourth place finish, with 8 percent of the vote, calls for him to suspend his campaign may increase.

 

Remaining primaries

There are 22 primaries remaining, and 1,099 delegates to be captured by the four GOP candidates.  While all primaries are important, here is a review of the ones that, if any candidates win, could change the game:

 

California—172 delegates at stake

The California primary on June 5 is important because it is a winner take all state. This means that whoever wins the popular vote in California will automatically earn all of the state’s delegates.

 

Texas—155 delegates at stake

While Texas portions it delegates in accordance with the popular vote, it is duly important because many pundits and bloggers have been talking about a major Santorum victory in the state because former GOP presidential and current Texas Governor Rick Perry has officially endorsed Santorum. The Texas primary will take place on May 29.

 

Pennsylvania—72 delegates at stake

Much like the Gingrich win in Georgia and the Romney wins in Massachusetts and Michigan, it is assumed that because Santorum served as a U.S. senator for the state of Pennsylvania that he will win a vast majority of the state’s delegates on primary day on April 24.

 

The delegate count

The first of the four GOP candidates to receive 1,144 delegates throughout the primary season will become the Republican Party Nominee in the 2012 general election. Here is where the current delegates stand:

Delegate Count Chart

GOP CANDIDATE Delegate Count Percentage
Mitt Romney 563 56%
Rick Santorum 263 26%
Newt Gingrich 135 13%
Ron Paul 50 5%

 

Candidate recap

 

Mitt Romney: mittromney.com

 Despite the fact that Romney has a 268 delegate count lead on Santorum, has the support of a vast majority of the GOP Establishment, and has captured the popular vote in states like Florida (46.4%), Ohio (37.9%) and Virginia (59.4%), there is still a general conversation about his ability to energize the GOP base. Romney’s “I don’t care about the poor” and “my wife drives two Cadillac’s” comments have given Americans the impression that he is unable to connect with the average American.

Rick Santorum: ricksantorum.com

With decisive wins in states like Colorado, Mississippi and Alabama, Santorum has demonstrated that he has the ability to energize the
GOP base. The self-proclaimed social conservative in the race, Santorum has come under pressure for his staunch stance on abortion and gay marriage, and has incited backlash from the left because of his “women shouldn’t serve in the military” styled comments.

 

 

Newt Gingrich: newt.org

With only two wins in Georgia and South Carolina, there have been numerous calls for Gingrich to suspend his campaign, but he is determined to go to the end. An article published in The Washington Examiner on March 4 titled “Santorum: I’ll beat Romney if Gingrich drops out,” Santorum makes the argument that if Gingrich were to drop out of the race, the anti-Romney vote could be consolidated and he could capture the nomination. For now, however, Gingrich remains in the race.

 

Ron Paul: ronpaul2012.com

With no wins and with a meager 50 delegates in his column, Ron Paul intends to stay in the race until the convention. An article publishedin The Huffington Post on March 12 entitled “Ron Paul Wins Popular Vote in U.S. Virgin Islands GOP Caucus” explains that because of the caucus rules in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Romney was awarded a majority of the delegates in the territory’s caucus, while Ron Paul won the popular vote.

 

With all four candidates strong in their conviction to remain in the race, the nomination process is sure to go to the convention, unless Romney receives the number of delegates necessary to secure the nomination. The Republican National Convention will take place in Tampa Bay, Fla. at the Tampa Bay Times Forum, from Aug. 27 to Aug. 30.

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