After eight months of no season-long fantasy football, it is finally returning. If you’re looking for any help with your fantasy drafts, you’re in the right place. Sit back, relax and get ready to win your league.
In this article, ADP, or average draft position, will be mentioned often in this article. In this scenario, it will be in the PPR (point per reception) format, and I will be using FantasyPros. FP has made a consensus of ADPs from six different fantasy applications, including ESPN, Sleeper and others. The board that will be used as reference will be linked here.
Load up on RBs
In fantasy drafts, no position has a more drastic drop-off than running back. In fantasy football, opportunity is king. You can’t score points when you aren’t on the field. The main reason a person needs to load up on RBs early is that there are only so many backs that one can rely on to play a consistent weekly role in their offense. During the 2020 NFL season, just six RBs played 70% of snaps in their respective games.
RBBC, better known as running back by committee, destroys value for individual players. All RBBCs typically follow a similar pattern. Constant rotation, zero consistency and no fantasy value. Many teams bring in RBs that specialize in different things rather than entrusting one player with different responsibilities.
After the third round concludes, RB depth falls down a cliff. There may be two or three RB’s that one could feel confident in drafting in the fourth round. Adversely, it seems like WR depth is the strongest in this general area. In your draft, try to get two RBs with your first two picks. The depth in the later rounds at WR and TE is much stronger.
Wait on QB
One of the most common mistakes that drafters make is that they take a quarterback within the first three rounds. In 2020, eight of the top ten QBs in fantasy scoring were drafted pick 50 or later. The two that came in the top 20 were Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Neither finished as a top 3 QB in scoring. When one takes a QB within the first three to five rounds, their team gets weaker at another position. The only time I advocate for taking a QB early is if someone has just fallen too far. For example, if Mahomes is available in the sixth round, I would fully recommend that he is drafted right then and there. Get your RB’s, WR’s and TE’s before you take your QB in your drafts.
Situation > talent
Talent can trick people into thinking that certain players are great fantasy players when that isn’t necessarily true. Let’s take a look at two division rivals. One is more talented, while the other offers much more fantasy value.
An example of a wide receiver whose situation overpowers their talent is Pittsburgh WR Diontae Johnson. The Toledo product led the NFL in dropped passes with 14 yet finished as WR21. With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger struggling with an elbow injury, he continuously looked short for Johnson. The second-year receiver ended the season with the eighth most targets in the NFL (144) despite missing a game and leaving three games in the first quarter due to injury. While he isn’t even thought of as a top WR in the NFL, he is one of the best and safest receivers in all of fantasy football due to his situation.
One of the most talented players in the entire league, Odell Beckham Jr., has been a major disappointment in fantasy football since his move to Cleveland before the 2019 season. He has played 23 games with the current scheme and had just 6 games with more than 15 fantasy points. In comparison, Johnson had 7 games with at least 15 points in 12 games in 2020. As talented as OBJ is, the Browns have a run-heavy scheme that isn’t friendly for WRs. In 2020, Beckham played six full games before tearing his ACL. In those six games, he had zero games with more than five catches. In Johnson’s 12 games, he had just two games with less than 5 catches. Point being, pick the guy that has the most fantasy-friendly situation. Talent doesn’t always win.
