The Venezuelan opposition has won Barinas, the home state of Hugo Chavez, in the regional elections. Barinas has been governed only by the relatives of Chavez since 1998, making this an influential win for the opposition. The victory of the opposition in this state demonstrates the public desire for change, but how far will this change go? The political agenda commonly known as Chavismo has been around for about 22 years. However, it has slowly become unpopular as the years have passed.
“In all fairness, what you’re seeing with Chavismo losing its luster, is just the natural progression of a highly personalistic political ideology and what happens when the face behind it dies or is no longer in power,” said Nelson Bass, assistant professor for the Halmos College of Arts and Science in the Department of Humanities and Politics with a specialization in Latin American politics.
Barinas is a staple within Chavismo, which demonstrates the strength of the political agenda. Now that the opposition has won the state, the stronghold of Chavismo is seemingly slipping.
“I think it does mean something that they won there, [Barinas], because if they can win in Chavez’s most supportive state then that says something about the financial crisis, hyperinflation and lack of functioning economy that is currently plaguing Venezuela.” said Bass.
Inequalities within the political campaigns have been criticized leading to the advantage of the opposition. Unequal media access and the unjustified disqualification of opposition candidates are just a few examples of the inequalities during campaigns. State resources, that have been in short supply, have also been used as leverage to push votes towards Chavismo.
“Maduro has made it pretty clear he wants to maintain his grip on power. He’s willing to have the court throw out candidates that rival him for power, he’s willing to use the courts to overthrow election results, he’s willing to clearly use dulling out of material goods for votes which actually we saw here,” said Bass.
Despite the electoral injustices, the opposition has created a movement towards a civil society. The opposition is using the discontent of the public as a uniting force to gain power and recognition. However, this doesn’t mean the opposition has the power to become the majority.
“I think what the opposition does have the ability to do is be the moderating voice once you get to the type of crisis that people within the state and government no longer want to support the status quo. That’s more likely than an electoral win,” said Bass.
Maduro has continued to make extralegal maneuvers to maintain his power. The biases of the courts and the self-preservation of Maduro have made it difficult for Venezuela to become inclusive or progressive. It’s not likely Maduro will give up his powers in light of the oppositions victory.
“We don’t very often see authoritarian leaders get pushed out by elections. It just doesn’t happen very often because they have invested interest in rigging those elections. The question, is how far can they go before they will meet a critical mass of people that are no longer willing to support that status quo?” said Bass.
The oppositions win in Barinas is significant in regards to the slow dismantling of Chavismo. However, it isn’t a sign that Venezuela will make a drastic change to favor the opposition. The win is more so a trail that can lead towards the growth of the opposition’s public power. The only chance the opposition has now is the unification of the public through a desire for change.
