Cubans in politics have been a regular occurrence in South Florida for decades, but nowhere is it stronger than Miami. Some Cubans line the streets and wave Trump flags at cars, others put on a nice suit and a sad face and pretend to care about the island nation. No matter what people might think about them, they have been a dominant force in right-wing Miami politics — until now.
It should come as no surprise to anyone that Cubans have dependently voted Republican for as long as there have been Cubans in South Florida. This is due to the hardline stance on Communism that has become a tradition with elected Republicans. This can be contrasted to Democrats’ willingness to negotiate with Communist regimes, namely the Castro regime, often receiving very little in return. According to Pew Research Center, in 2016, 54% of Cubans voted for Trump. That’s compared to only 28% of Hispanic voters who turned out for the former president nationwide.
Cubans loved Trump. However, in the same study, Pew Research Center found that 52% of Cuban voters approved of the former president’s performance prior to the 2020 general election. That denotes a shift of at least 2% among Cuban opinion. Safe to say that Trump had at least half of the Cubans in the bag for four years. So, why did he lose by an 8% margin in Miami-Dade?
Could it be that there are just not enough Cubans? The Cuban Studies Institute puts the percentage of Cubans living in Miami-Dade county at 34.3%, the most out of any county in the U.S. They are the largest group out of all immigrant groups in Miami, according to the National Immigration Forum. They hold voting power in Miami as being one of the key groups politicians must appeal to in order to get elected.
What about ideology? In 2019, the Sun Sentinel reported that Cubans who were between 18 and 39 years of age “are 35% Republican, 23% Democrat and 40% no party affiliation.” This is compared to Cubans who immigrated before 1980, who were 71% Republican. The drop in right-wing politics is shared amongst island-born Cubans and Cuban Americans alike. But, is that it?
The victory of President Joe Biden in Miami-Dade is not based solely on one of these issues, but a combination of all of them. Cubans, although a major part of Miami, do not make up a majority, but are large in number, nonetheless. However, Trump was an extremely unpopular president nationwide and even managed to divide a community that is still predominantly Republican. The factor that will be felt through elections to come is the growing divide of moderate to left-wing Cubans and the right-wing Cubans.
Even though Trump lost Miami, another Republican, Maria Elvira Salazar, won a seat as Representative of District 27. Salazar, whose campaign was arguably all about how she is a well known Cuban in Miami, lost in 2018 to her opponent, Donna Shalala. This time she won by just a 2% margin. Salazar was a much more moderate candidate than the former president, so her win and his loss in Miami can show the battle that will play out for elections to come in right-wing Cuban circles: the GOP vs Trumpism. Now, with talk of a new political party forming, titled “Patriot Party,” the GOP will have to deal with an ideological separation of many of its key voter bases in Miami and South Florida. This means that a new factor to consider for political hopefuls and incumbents will be “What is my stance on Trump?” While Cuban Republicans will struggle to decide which future political candidates they want, the ever forgotten Cuban Left may see a comeback in future elections. Either way, the turmoil in the well established Cuban Right will leave a political vacuum that will need to be filled.
