Political history says Obama should win a second term

An issue of “The New Yorker” released on Feb. 6 features President Barack Obama enjoying what appears to be a football game on TV. The image on the television screen, however, displays GOP presidential hopefuls Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney battling it out for the nomination.
There is a certain air of entitlement and (sometimes) accomplishment that an incumbent enjoys. And while Republicans (and disappointed Democrats) may cringe at the thought, President Obama — statistically speaking — stands a good chance of being re-elected to serve a second term as president of the United States.
An April 4, 2011 article in the “Washington Examiner” reported that only five of 19 presidents who have sought re-election since 1900 have lost.  Most surprising, is the fact that only one incumbent, Democrat president (Jimmy Carter — 1980), has lost his campaign for re-election. The remaining four incumbent presidents were Republicans: George H.W. Bush, 1992; Gerald Ford, 1976; Herbert Hoover, 1932; and William Taft, 1912.
I believe that President Obama hasn’t done anything significant since taking office three years ago. The mantras of “change,” “hope,” and “Yes we can,” which then seemed like plausible solutions, have now come to reveal themselves as nothing more than empty phrases used on the campaign stump in an effort to distract voters from what was blatantly obvious: Obama was a community organizer, a law school professor, and a freshman senator, but wasn’t, isn’t, and will never be prepared to govern and solve the real problems of the United States.
Despite my opinion, there are several factors that stand to benefit Obama. First, there is Health Care Reform. While it is perhaps the most ineffective and controversial article of legislation that has ever been signed by a U.S. president, the fact that the U.S. Congress actually passed the Health Care Reform Act and the president signed it is quite an accomplishment. Second, while the national debt is the highest it’s ever been, Obama has proposed many solutions for balancing the budget.
Third, unemployment figures, have been decreasing steadily. While the jobs created are in customer service and pay no more than $1,920 per month ($12/hour) before taxes, there are nonetheless jobs opportunities for those who are willing to go back to the bottom of totem pole and work their way back up.
Fourth, and most importantly, a vast majority of minorities in America vote Democrat, regardless of the issues, as they believe that a vote for Republican is a vote for social and economic inequality.
While I hate to admit it, these are all valid reasons as to why President Obama will perhaps be re-elected in November. Unless the Republicans choose a candidate that the base, the broader Republican Party, independents, and those Democrats who are disappointed in President Obama’s less than stellar performance, will rally around, raise funding for, and will be excited to talk to others about, no Republican nominee will defeat the incumbency machine that is President Obama.

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